Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Strategy game?

Strategy + Thriller

Of 116 developers who shipped a Thriller Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 170 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×295 the market median. Revenue is up 230% on the market; 170 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 230% on the market, 170 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 116
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $1.3k → $598 → $538 → $779 → $599 → $987 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 116
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $807 (exactly $807)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 5% $185k (exactly $185,165)
Developers, 2 yr 116
Released games 271
Announced 170
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 230% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 12,174 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $810, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 67 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 170 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Staffer Case: A Supernatural Mystery Adventure older $16.99 4,074 93% 122k $2.1M (exactly $2,076,518) Team Tetrapod
We. The Revolution older $19.99 1,997 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,197,601) Polyslash
Subliminal $9.99 3,535 74% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,440) Accidental Studios
THE 4 SINS older $9.99 3,377 23% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,087) 奇门互娱
Don't Escape: 4 Days to Survive older $14.99 2,184 98% 66k $982k (exactly $982,145) scriptwelder
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River
Gods Will Be Watching older $9.99 2,233 71% 67k $669k (exactly $669,230) Deconstructeam
Shadow Corridor 2 雨ノ四葩 older $18.99 853 87% 26k $486k (exactly $485,954) Space Onigiri Game LLC
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
Asbury Pines · EA $12.99 558 90% 17k $217k (exactly $217,453) Chaystar Unlimited LLC
Killed by Love 99 Times $12.99 533 95% 16k $208k (exactly $207,710) CineGame Interactive
They Killed Your Cat $6.99 883 75% 26k $185k (exactly $185,165) Vekaria
The Joker's Game $11.99 486 82% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) All In Game Co., Limited
SIDE EFFECTS $4.99 858 83% 26k $128k (exactly $128,443) hirohun, Mr.Pootsley, Jaybooty, Lofar42
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.