Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Strategy game?

Strategy + Ninja

Of 27 developers who shipped a Ninja Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $19k, ×31 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 27 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 205% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $348k → $2.9k → $179 → $3.3k → $809 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $19,181)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 96
Announced 27
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Combat, Turn-Based Combat, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,511 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER older $19.99 42,572 84% 1.3M $26M (exactly $25,530,428) Soleil Ltd.
Aragami older $19.99 10,234 90% 307k $6.1M (exactly $6,137,330) Lince Works
Shogun Showdown older $14.99 6,197 95% 186k $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) Roboatino
Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice older $19.99 3,965 93% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,377,810) Mimimi Games
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 2 older $19.99 3,457 88% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,073,163) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Sairento VR older $29.99 1,448 86% 43k $1.3M (exactly $1,302,766) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Sword With Sauce older $4.99 5,762 86% 173k $863k (exactly $862,571) Diatomic Studios
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
Arashi Gaiden $9.99 64 95% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) Statera Studio, Wired Dreams Studio
RHYTHMKILL $9.99 45 82% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) GETTAKE
Shogun Curse $9.99 20 60% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Oh Baby Games
Project Chameleon $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Anonymous King
Shogi $7.99 14 71% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Popoko VM Games
NINDO Guardian of the Starlit Shadow · EA $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) MORIKICHIDO
Ninja Ming: Wu $1.99 48 100% 1.4k $2.9k (exactly $2,866) 1 Poss Studio
Peak $1.99 42 92% 1.3k $2.5k (exactly $2,507) Three Hands Co
Gangs Of Asia · EA $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Moonpunch

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.