Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Souls-like

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Souls-like?

Souls-like

Of 679 developers who shipped a Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,354 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1891 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 1,354 games are announced against 386 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 1,354 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 679
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $3.6k → $1.8k → $3.9k → $2.7k → $4.2k → $3.5k (still earning) → $4.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 679
Bottom 30% $594 (exactly $594)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,597)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $48,576)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116)
Developers, 2 yr 679
Released games 2,059
Announced 1,354
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,266,866 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 368 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,354 games are announced against 386 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Souls-like

87 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Souls-like + Swordplay Poor odds $2.7k 74 devs
  2. Souls-like + Shooter Poor odds $2.7k 61 devs
  3. Souls-like + 2D Platformer Poor odds $2.6k 111 devs
  4. Souls-like + Top-Down Shooter Poor odds $2.1k 13 devs
  5. Souls-like + Tactical Poor odds $1.9k 15 devs
  6. Souls-like + Resource Management Poor odds $1.9k 12 devs
  7. Souls-like + Beat 'em up Poor odds $1.8k 36 devs
  8. Souls-like + Bullet Hell Poor odds $1.8k 46 devs
  9. Souls-like + Third-Person Shooter Poor odds $1.6k 32 devs
  10. Souls-like + Stealth Poor odds $1.6k 22 devs
  11. Souls-like + Boss Rush Poor odds $1.6k 21 devs
  12. 3D Fighter + Souls-like Poor odds $1.4k 39 devs
  13. Souls-like + Puzzle Platformer Poor odds $1.3k 22 devs
  14. Souls-like + Physics Poor odds $1.2k 42 devs
  15. Souls-like + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $1.2k 16 devs
  16. Souls-like + 2D Fighter Poor odds $1.2k 12 devs
  17. Souls-like + PvE Poor odds $1.1k 142 devs
  18. Souls-like + 3D Platformer Poor odds $1.0k 74 devs
  19. Souls-like + Collectathon Poor odds $980 9 devs
  20. Souls-like + Survival Poor odds $958 57 devs
  21. Souls-like + Parkour Poor odds $899 21 devs
  22. Souls-like + Mystery Dungeon Poor odds $899 14 devs
  23. Souls-like + Strategy RPG Poor odds $719 12 devs
  24. Souls-like + Arcade Poor odds $533 63 devs
  25. Souls-like + Hidden Object Poor odds $450 18 devs
  26. Character Action Game + Souls-like Dead $1.7M 7 devs
  27. Souls-like + Local Multiplayer Dead $28k 7 devs
  28. Souls-like + Logic Dead $3.8k 6 devs
  29. Souls-like + Arena Shooter Dead $1.8k 8 devs
  30. Souls-like + Bullet Time Dead $1.6k 11 devs
  31. Souls-like + Sports Dead $1.4k 6 devs
  32. Souls-like + Point & Click Dead $1.2k 9 devs
  33. Souls-like + Idler Dead $839 6 devs
  34. Souls-like + Tactical RPG Dead $809 11 devs
  35. Souls-like + Rhythm Dead $239 7 devs
  36. Souls-like + Racing Dead $120 9 devs
  37. Souls-like + Runner Dead $0 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers $49.99 44,865 58% 1.3M $67M (exactly $67,284,040) Leenzee
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
God of War Ragnarök $59.99 32,502 89% 975k $58M (exactly $58,493,849) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.