Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Souls-like?

Souls-like + Mystery Dungeon

Only 14 developers shipped a Mystery Dungeon Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Stonemachia, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 29 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 63075% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 63075% on the market, 29 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $179 → $2.9k → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $267 (exactly $267)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $94k (exactly $93,987)
Top 5% $746k (exactly $746,027)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 58
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 63075% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Mystery Dungeon; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 3,654 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $900, 1 in 4 over $93k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stonemachia $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Crossfall Games
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Monsters Domain older $19.99 272 34% 8.2k $163k (exactly $163,118) G-DEVS.com
Maid of Salvation $14.99 209 88% 6.3k $94k (exactly $93,987) ORANGE POPCORN
Firelight Fantasy: Phoenix Crew older $13.99 173 78% 5.2k $73k (exactly $72,608) Quacky Games
Firelight Fantasy: Vengeance older $13.99 142 79% 4.3k $60k (exactly $59,597) Quacky Games
Firelight Fantasy: Resistance older $11.99 165 77% 5.0k $59k (exactly $59,350) Quacky Games
Undergrave older $9.99 72 87% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Wired Dreams Studio
Dungeon Limbus older $14.99 17 52% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) GameIn
Elf Adventure: The Lost Castle $6.99 14 28% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) 430Games
Demon Street $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Manycats Games
Hoku Shrine · EA $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Ibragim Shaipov
Alternis · EA $2.99 6 66% 180 $538 (exactly $538) R4v3nB14ck
Bones&Darks $1.99 6 50% 180 $358 (exactly $358) Ahnes Studios
Run Eternal Depths $0.99 9 88% 270 $267 (exactly $267) Artyom Gudkov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.