Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Souls-like?

Souls-like + Collectathon

Only 9 developers shipped a Collectathon Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Duskfade, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $980, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper, while revenue is up 10225% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10225% on the market, 21 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Souls-like + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $980 (exactly $980)
Top 25% $65k (exactly $65,304)
Top 5% $713k (exactly $713,462)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 34
Announced 21
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10225% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Collectathon
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 5,492 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $980, 1 in 4 over $65k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Little Noah: Scion of Paradise older $14.99 2,172 92% 65k $977k (exactly $976,748) Cygames, Inc., Grounding Inc.
Duskfade $29.99 793 91% 24k $713k (exactly $713,462) Weird Beluga
Eternity Egg · EA $19.99 577 82% 17k $346k (exactly $346,027) USERLANDS
Almighty: Kill Your Gods · EA older $24.99 321 61% 9.6k $241k (exactly $240,654) RUNWILD Entertainment
Jorel’s Brother and The Most Important Game of the Galaxy - Complete Edition older $14.99 182 82% 5.5k $82k (exactly $81,845) Double Dash Studios, Copa Studio
Outrider Mako $17.99 121 65% 3.6k $65k (exactly $65,304) Asamado Games
qop older $1.99 1,088 91% 33k $65k (exactly $64,954) Quiet River
ENCHAIN · EA $19.99 94 96% 2.8k $56k (exactly $56,372) mattlawrdev
Tropicalia: a Brazilian Game older $14.99 61 90% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Paulo Henrique Franqueira
Hobo Cat Adventures older $10.99 83 92% 2.5k $27k (exactly $27,365) Hobo Cat Games
Stump Simulator 2 $0.99 33 93% 990 $980 (exactly $980) Dynamic Games
Misery Avenue $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Miseryous Games
Entities $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Danilo Willian
Dash Trails $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ochiai Retsuto
The Return of Those Who Didn't Go $6.90 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Dellamarque Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.