Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Souls-like?

Souls-like + Idler

Only 6 developers shipped an Idler Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Desktop Defender, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $840 against a market of $1.5k. 7 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 43255% on the market, 7 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Souls-like + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,234)
Top 5% $263k (exactly $263,023)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 28
Announced 7
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 43250% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Idler
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $2.00.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 5,764 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $840, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 4 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Desktop Defender $4.99 1,757 92% 53k $263k (exactly $263,023) Conradical Games
XiuzhenWorld older $12.99 436 75% 13k $170k (exactly $169,909) Noforgetit
Gachi Heroes older $0.99 1,708 93% 51k $51k (exactly $50,728) GachiSoft
With Your Coworker $0.99 1,220 82% 37k $36k (exactly $36,234) 搖滾冰塊
Paint Drying Simulator older $0.99 307 90% 9.2k $9.1k (exactly $9,118) GLADY'S Comcis
Nothing older $0.99 243 95% 7.3k $7.2k (exactly $7,217) Pixelatto
Shattered Dreams: that one time when all my applications got rejected, so I started my own company. My life became an idle / clicker game where I must increase all incremental values and squeeze my employees for every last bit of soul they have left. older $4.99 19 68% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Rainy Parts
Idle Battle RPG older $3.99 20 50% 600 $2.4k (exactly $2,394) roflinka games
King Of Water older $0.99 43 95% 1.3k $1.3k (exactly $1,277) Little Studio
Banana Clicker · EA older $2.99 11 45% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Siphon Games
Idle RPG $6.99 4 25% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Repeat Games
Incestuous Affair $2.99 2 0% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Alright Peaches Studio
Gold Finger $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) 美慢慢
Cheems Bonk $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Cheems

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.