Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay Souls-like?

Souls-like + Swordplay

Of 74 developers who shipped a Swordplay Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 132 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $7.5M, ×5031 the market median. Revenue is up 365% on the market; 132 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 365% on the market, 132 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 74
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $2.5k → $3.3k → $11k → $449 → $6.5k → $3.0k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 74
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,019)
Top 5% $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144)
Developers, 2 yr 74
Released games 180
Announced 132
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 365% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Swordplay; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Action RPG
Price point
$8.00 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Violent, 3D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $8.00.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 41,565 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $7.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 132 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ 2023 · $168M Sifu 2023 · $26M Onimusha: Way of the Sword 2026 · $24M Bright Memory: Infinite 2021 · $22M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ older $69.99 79,990 71% 2.4M $168M (exactly $167,955,003) Respawn
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Bright Memory: Infinite older $19.99 36,229 91% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,726,531) FYQD-Studio
Absolver older $29.99 11,464 74% 344k $10M (exactly $10,314,161) Sloclap
Tails of Iron older $24.99 13,116 87% 393k $9.8M (exactly $9,833,065) Odd Bug Studio
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black $49.99 3,289 78% 99k $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms $34.99 1,559 72% 47k $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) Gamera Interactive
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.