Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Souls-like?

Souls-like + Arcade

Of 63 developers who shipped an Arcade Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $530, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 92 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper, while revenue is down 25% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 92 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $3.6k → $598 → $898 → $299 → $2.7k → $210 (still earning) → $958 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $533 (exactly $533)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,892)
Top 5% $772k (exactly $771,530)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 239
Announced 92
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Hack and Slash
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 28,845 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $530, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sifu 2023 · $26M Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ 2022 · $23M Dead as Disco 2026 · EA · $9.3M Windblown 2024 · EA · $6.8M Lonely Mountains: Downhill 2019 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ older $39.39 19,507 94% 585k $23M (exactly $23,051,422) SEGA
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
Last Command older $14.99 2,235 95% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,080) No Stuck Game Studio, CreSpirit
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Touhou Kanjuden ~ Legacy of Lunatic Kingdom. older $14.99 1,516 98% 45k $682k (exactly $681,745) 上海アリス幻樂団
SUPER CHICKEN JUMPER older $2.99 4,888 96% 147k $438k (exactly $438,454) Sewer Cat, Heavy Sheep
ButtKnight $9.99 1,299 91% 39k $389k (exactly $389,310) Goblin Stew, Critical Bliss
The Bleakest Keep $9.99 719 90% 22k $215k (exactly $215,484) Cache of Bones
Scarlet Skips $4.99 1,310 78% 39k $196k (exactly $196,107) Yerk Games
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Rogue Eclipse $19.99 50 62% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) HUSKRAFTS
Nitroglycerine! $4.99 146 86% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,856) Avoidance

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.