Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Racing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Racing Souls-like?

Souls-like + Racing

Only 9 developers shipped a Racing Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Just Move:Clean City Messy Battle, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Racing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $419 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Racing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $120 (exactly $120)
Top 25% $599 (exactly $599)
Top 5% $5.3k (exactly $5,277)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 32
Announced 10
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Racing
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 6 games average 52% positive over 40 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $590, 1 in 20 over $5.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
SWORDCAR · EA older $4.99 92 96% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,772) SpaceMicroscope Studios
Eggcelerate! to the Tropics older $11.99 37 97% 1.1k $13k (exactly $13,309) Tim Beaudet, Tyre Bytes LLC
Squirreltopia older $4.99 88 69% 2.6k $13k (exactly $13,174) SD
Nothing older $0.99 243 95% 7.3k $7.2k (exactly $7,217) Pixelatto
Just Move:Clean City Messy Battle $15.99 11 45% 330 $5.3k (exactly $5,277) daminggede
Just Move Fall Dungeon Endless Abyss $15.99 8 50% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) daminggede
Eggcelerate! to the North Pole older $9.99 8 100% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Tim Beaudet, Tyre Bytes LLC
pedalverse $4.99 14 42% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) FuristicStudio
UNICYCLIST older $4.99 7 71% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) John Peate
It's OK to Fail $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Monky
Ultimate super boy $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) WaterGames
Song Of Aria $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Cyan Candle
Time Assassin $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 0cd studio
Marble Blade $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Baker Games Studios
The Last Gap $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ApeRockt
Rolling Star $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Atelier Nuclear

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.