Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Souls-like?

Souls-like + Physics

Of 42 developers who shipped a Physics Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×301 the market median. Revenue is up 1550% on the market; 47 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1550% on the market, 47 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $8.6k → $1.2k → $2.1k → $1.0k → $4.5k → $8.4k (still earning) → $31k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $594 (exactly $594)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,856)
Top 5% $451k (exactly $450,570)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 120
Announced 47
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1550% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Physics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 5,126 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
Exanima · EA older $14.99 12,684 80% 381k $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) Bare Mettle Entertainment
STAR WARS™: The Force Unleashed™ II older $19.99 5,854 63% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,510,644) Aspyr Studios
Hellsplit: Arena older $24.99 3,735 83% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,800,130) Deep Type Games
En Garde! older $19.99 4,161 90% 125k $2.5M (exactly $2,495,352) Fireplace Games
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
Eternal Strands $29.99 1,661 87% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) Yellow Brick Games
Source of Madness older $19.99 1,410 69% 42k $846k (exactly $845,577) Carry Castle
The Light Brigade: Definitive Edition older $24.99 1,125 88% 34k $843k (exactly $843,412) Funktronic Labs
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd
Trench Tales · EA $24.99 601 69% 18k $451k (exactly $450,570) Talking Drums
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Gun Frog $4.99 433 94% 13k $65k (exactly $64,820) Zoteling
Pushing it! Together - Sisyphus Co-op $3.99 491 48% 15k $59k (exactly $58,773) Bashir "ManliestDev" Kashalo,… (Bashir "ManliestDev" Kashalo, Blind Archer)
Driving Is Hard $6.99 200 79% 6.0k $42k (exactly $41,940) Elegant Horse Studios
THE CANON OF BALLS $3.99 287 98% 8.6k $34k (exactly $34,354) Helios Monk
Soul Chained $6.99 149 71% 4.5k $31k (exactly $31,245) Andrew Nicolaou
Maseylia : Echoes of the Past $16.99 61 80% 1.8k $31k (exactly $31,092) Sol Brothers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.