Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Survival Souls-like?

Souls-like + Survival

Of 57 developers who shipped a Survival Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 90 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360. 90 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper, while revenue is down 80% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 90 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $9.3k → $809 → $2.7k → $9.6k → $5.4k → $839 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,593)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $12,028,936)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 167
Announced 90
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Survival; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Action RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 172,645 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $960, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $12M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 90 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Grounded older $39.99 75,755 90% 2.3M $91M (exactly $90,883,274) Obsidian Entertainment
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
Outward Definitive Edition older $39.99 24,636 72% 739k $30M (exactly $29,555,809) Nine Dots Studio
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
Ashen older $39.99 3,280 67% 98k $3.9M (exactly $3,935,016) A44
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
Void Sols $14.99 347 95% 10k $156k (exactly $156,046) Finite Reflection Studios
ENDALOR · EA $19.99 256 71% 7.7k $154k (exactly $153,523) Diorite Games
Dark PGT $4.99 404 83% 12k $60k (exactly $60,479) ZERO5GAMES
Elder Legacy: Survival · EA $9.99 189 62% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Honor Games
Hollow Survivors $9.99 177 80% 5.3k $53k (exactly $53,047) Danny Deer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.