Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + 2D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Fighter Souls-like?

Souls-like + 2D Fighter

Only 12 developers shipped a 2D Fighter Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SiNiSistar 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×8.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×1064 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 42 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 42 announced, ×8.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + 2D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $600 → $1.4k → $8.6k → $0 → $537 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + 2D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $46k (exactly $45,554)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,594,186)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 62
Announced 42
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, 2D Fighter
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 90% positive over 4,454 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Anomaly Agent older $11.99 9,463 94% 284k $3.4M (exactly $3,403,841) Phew Phew Games
SiNiSistar 2 $14.99 3,545 90% 106k $1.6M (exactly $1,594,186) Uu
Halluci-Sabbat of Koishi $7.99 701 91% 21k $168k (exactly $168,030) ZRIGN 地霊研究院
Unsouled older $19.99 265 72% 8.0k $159k (exactly $158,920) Megusta Game
Listen to the Wind older $11.99 421 73% 13k $151k (exactly $151,434) Papertiger Studio
Men against Lizards $9.99 152 93% 4.6k $46k (exactly $45,554) VICTORIA Games
Pato Box older $9.99 117 70% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) Bromio, 2think design studio
Boss Rush: Mythology older $4.99 123 78% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) Alexey Suslin
Unformed 破妄 · EA older $14.99 29 68% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Bones
Vessels of Decay $17.99 24 50% 720 $13k (exactly $12,953) Simon Jakobsson, Aurora Punks
Hammer of Pain $10.99 10 80% 300 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) SleepingFrog
PARRY COUNTER $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Hakunaku
Blade of One $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Leo Torrijos
Sunrise Of The Time: End Of Blue $1.99 9 100% 270 $537 (exactly $537) EOSGAMES
灵魂重生 Reborn the Soul $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) 芝麻驴科技有限公司
INFEROS NUMINE : descent into darkness $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 2.5D Gaming Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.