Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sandbox?

Sandbox

Of 2,455 developers who shipped a Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,914 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2905 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 4,914 games are announced against 1,549 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 4,914 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,455
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $6.0k → $10k → $5.3k → $9.3k → $4.3k → $3.9k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,455
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $59,370)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433)
Developers, 2 yr 2,455
Released games 7,285
Announced 4,914
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,918,010 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 1,164 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,914 games are announced against 1,549 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Sandbox

68 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Sandbox + Aliens Poor odds $2.4k 47 devs
  2. Sandbox + Underwater Poor odds $2.3k 41 devs
  3. Sandbox + Underground Poor odds $2.2k 44 devs
  4. Sandbox + Mystery Poor odds $2.2k 76 devs
  5. Sandbox + Futuristic Poor odds $1.8k 100 devs
  6. Sandbox + Spaceships Poor odds $1.8k 11 devs
  7. Sandbox + Heist Poor odds $1.8k 12 devs
  8. Sandbox + Demons Poor odds $1.3k 22 devs
  9. Sandbox + Gothic Poor odds $1.3k 9 devs
  10. Sandbox + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 28 devs
  11. Sandbox + Psychological Poor odds $1.0k 17 devs
  12. Sandbox + Dystopian Poor odds $989 31 devs
  13. Sandbox + Conspiracy Poor odds $599 9 devs
  14. Sandbox + Rome Dead $556k 6 devs
  15. Sandbox + World War I Dead $187k 7 devs
  16. Sandbox + Villain Protagonist Dead $95k 4 devs
  17. Sandbox + Superhero Dead $16k 5 devs
  18. Sandbox + Assassins Dead $1.8k 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B Rust 2018 · $1.4B The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M DayZ 2018 · $582M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.