Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Sandbox?

Sandbox + Psychological

Only 17 developers shipped a Psychological Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Crawling Angels, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $60k, ×96 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 52 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 52 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $46k → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $356 (exactly $356)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,000)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 5% $61k (exactly $60,539)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 42
Announced 52
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action-Adventure, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Emotional, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 716 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $60k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
Honey, I Joined a Cult older $25.99 1,380 73% 41k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,986) Sole Survivor Games
Strain Tactics older $14.99 214 87% 6.4k $96k (exactly $96,236) Touch Dimensions Interactive
Crawling Angels $9.99 202 96% 6.1k $61k (exactly $60,539) ItsTheTalia, Autumn West
ANGST: A TALE OF SURVIVAL $7.99 227 86% 6.8k $54k (exactly $54,412) Cherrypick Games
GAME.exe older $3.99 415 83% 12k $50k (exactly $49,676) Punx Studios
Siren's Well $24.99 62 66% 1.9k $46k (exactly $46,481) OneManOnly Studios
Among The Whispers - Provocation $14.99 101 79% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) D&A Studios
Player Non Player older $9.99 36 100% 1.1k $11k (exactly $10,789) Jonathan Coryn
Seclusion · EA $9.99 19 68% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Forgeworks Studio
My Best Friend Kouta · EA older $9.99 19 84% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Graverobber AXDX
World Alone $2.99 51 82% 1.5k $4.6k (exactly $4,575) DCE Projects
The Suburbs $3.99 36 75% 1.1k $4.3k (exactly $4,309) The Sexy Chinaman
Housekeeper: Anomaly $5.99 14 100% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Alex Grim
TET~CRAFT: The Fourth Temple $33.33 1 100% 30 $1.0k (exactly $1,000) ceneezer
Taverna · EA $9.99 3 0% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Overfort Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.