Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Mystery
Should I ship a Mystery Sandbox?
Sandbox + Mystery
Of 76 developers who shipped a Mystery Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 197 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4407 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 197 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,155) |
| Top 25% | $46k (exactly $46,481) |
| Top 5% | $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 76 |
| Released games | 182 |
| Announced | 197 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Crafting
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 66,980 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 197 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Graveyard Keeper 2018 · $24M 
Big Walk 2026 · $19M 
The Wild Eight 2019 · $5.0M 
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M 
Len's Island 2025 · $4.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Graveyard Keeper | older | $19.99 | 39,547 86% | 1.2M | $24M (exactly $23,716,336) | Lazy Bear Games |
| | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
| | The Wild Eight | older | $24.99 | 6,646 69% | 199k | $5.0M (exactly $4,982,506) | Eight Points |
| | ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game | older | $14.99 | 9,991 84% | 300k | $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) | AtomTeam |
| | Len's Island | $24.99 | 5,935 82% | 178k | $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) | Flow Studio | |
 | Storyteller | older | $14.99 | 8,169 88% | 245k | $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) | Daniel Benmergui |
 | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
 | A Game About Digging A Hole™ | $4.99 | 18,785 89% | 564k | $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) | DoubleBee | |
 | Techtonica | $29.99 | 3,076 64% | 92k | $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) | Fire Hose Games | |
 | The Solus Project | older | $19.99 | 2,471 79% | 74k | $1.5M (exactly $1,481,859) | Hourences, Grip Games |
 | Welcome to Elderfield | $17.99 | 1,334 87% | 40k | $720k (exactly $719,960) | Chris Cote | |
 | The Spotter: Dig or Die | $12.99 | 1,792 84% | 54k | $698k (exactly $698,342) | Puppyroar Games | |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | Meltopia | $6.99 | 1,679 85% | 50k | $352k (exactly $352,086) | Garden of Dreams | |
 | Island Notes | $12.99 | 884 82% | 27k | $344k (exactly $344,495) | KangBaoGame | |
 | Midnight Sin | $19.99 | 387 82% | 12k | $232k (exactly $232,084) | Faerin Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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