Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Superhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero Sandbox?

Sandbox + Superhero

Only 5 developers shipped a Superhero Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Superhero Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 0 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $16k against a market of $1.5k. 6 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 10.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 6 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $899 → $8.4k → $16k
Outcomes for Sandbox + Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Median $16k (exactly $16,367)
Top 25% $88k (exactly $88,112)
Top 5% $156k (exactly $155,800)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 41
Announced 6
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Sandbox
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 336,494 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $88k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6 games are announced against 0 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Saints Row IV: Re-Elected older $19.99 57,525 87% 1.7M $34M (exactly $34,497,742) Deep Silver Volition
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
Batman™: Arkham Origins older $19.99 45,536 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,307,939) WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage
LEGO® Marvel™ Super Heroes older $19.99 22,663 95% 680k $14M (exactly $13,591,001) Traveller's Tales
Prototype 2 older $39.99 10,389 75% 312k $12M (exactly $12,463,683) Radical Entertainment
Prototype™ older $19.99 12,518 80% 376k $7.5M (exactly $7,507,045) Radical Entertainment
Saints Row older $29.99 5,765 61% 173k $5.2M (exactly $5,186,770) Volition
LEGO® Batman™ 3: Beyond Gotham older $19.99 7,521 88% 226k $4.5M (exactly $4,510,344) TT Games Ltd
LEGO® Marvel Super Heroes 2 older $19.99 7,452 86% 224k $4.5M (exactly $4,468,964) TT Games, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Villain's Legacy $9.99 294 82% 8.8k $88k (exactly $88,112) Mad scientist lab
Super Farming Boy · EA $12.99 42 85% 1.3k $16k (exactly $16,367) LemonChili Soft
Evil Superhero Simulator · EA $2.99 17 88% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Superhero Central
Puppet Seed $8.99 3 0% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Moosopolis Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.