Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + World War I

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWI Sandbox?

Sandbox + World War I

Only 7 developers shipped a WWI Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rising Front, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $190k against a market of $630. 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 297.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 650% on the market, 10 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + World War I
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sandbox + World War I: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $184k (exactly $183,938)
Median $187k (exactly $186,666)
Top 25% $795k (exactly $795,335)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 27
Announced 10
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 650% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
World War I
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 139,234 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $190k, median $190k, 1 in 4 over $790k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $190k. 10 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Rising Front $14.99 4,057 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
Hearts of Iron III older $9.99 4,962 76% 149k $1.5M (exactly $1,487,111) Paradox Development Studio
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Warnament $12.99 479 84% 14k $187k (exactly $186,666) Luden.io
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius
Real RC: Flight Simulator Aircraft Remote Control 2026 $29.99 3 33% 90 $2.7k (exactly $2,699) Thetis Games
hotland $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) AdamasZ

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.