Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Villain Protagonist
Should I ship a Villain-Led Sandbox?
Sandbox + Villain Protagonist
Only 4 developers shipped a Villain-Led Sandbox in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 12 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $95k against a market of $630. 21 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $34k (exactly $33,579) |
|---|---|
| Median | $164k (exactly $164,140) |
| Top 25% | $381k (exactly $381,409) |
| Top 5% | $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) |
| Developers, 4 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 39 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $15.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Villain Protagonist
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox
- Price point
- $15.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 77,744 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $34k. 21 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Untitled Goose Game 2020 · $14M 
Evil Genius 2: World Domination 2021 · $14M 
Prototype 2 2012 · $12M 
Destroy All Humans! 2020 · $8.1M 
War for the Overworld 2015 · $5.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Untitled Goose Game | older | $19.99 | 22,797 95% | 684k | $14M (exactly $13,671,361) | House House |
| | Evil Genius 2: World Domination | older | $39.99 | 11,255 69% | 338k | $14M (exactly $13,502,624) | Rebellion |
| | Prototype 2 | older | $39.99 | 10,389 75% | 312k | $12M (exactly $12,463,683) | Radical Entertainment |
| | Destroy All Humans! | older | $29.99 | 8,971 92% | 269k | $8.1M (exactly $8,071,209) | Black Forest Games, Pandemic Studios |
| | War for the Overworld | older | $29.99 | 6,495 85% | 195k | $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) | Brightrock Games |
 | Empire of Sin | older | $39.99 | 4,544 49% | 136k | $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) | Romero Games |
 | LEGO® City Undercover | older | $19.99 | 7,414 91% | 222k | $4.4M (exactly $4,446,176) | Traveller's Tales |
 | Dungeons 2 | older | $19.99 | 2,292 79% | 69k | $1.4M (exactly $1,374,512) | Realmforge Studios |
 | Lucius II | older | $19.99 | 1,910 61% | 57k | $1.1M (exactly $1,145,427) | Shiver Games |
 | KeeperRL | older | $19.99 | 1,677 83% | 50k | $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) | Electric Succubi |
 | Mr. Sleepy Man | $19.99 | 636 98% | 19k | $381k (exactly $381,409) | Devin Santi | |
 | Excidio The Kaiju Simulator | $12.99 | 244 92% | 7.3k | $95k (exactly $95,087) | TokuPop | |
 | Monstergirl Hunters | $15.99 | 70 94% | 2.1k | $34k (exactly $33,579) | MadoWorks | |
 | Landlord Simulator | · EA | $13.99 | 29 62% | 870 | $12k (exactly $12,171) | BeyondPlanet |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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