Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Rome

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roman Sandbox?

Sandbox + Rome

Only 6 developers shipped a Roman Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Anno 117: Pax Romana, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $560k against a market of $630. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 885.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 13 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Rome
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sandbox + Rome: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $160k (exactly $159,520)
Median $556k (exactly $556,277)
Top 25% $753k (exactly $753,448)
Top 5% $22M (exactly $21,866,355)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 25
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $24.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Rome
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox
Price point
$24.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 77,235 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $160k, median $560k, 1 in 4 over $750k, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $160k. 13 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood older $19.99 24,958 88% 749k $15M (exactly $14,967,313) Ubisoft Montreal
We Who Are About To Die · EA older $21.99 8,134 88% 244k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) Jordy Lakiere
Shieldwall older $17.99 7,148 86% 214k $3.9M (exactly $3,857,776) Nezon Production
Warlord: Britannia older $19.99 1,890 88% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,133,433) Darkmatter Games
Citadelum $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) Abylight Barcelona
Roman Triumph: Survival City Builder $24.99 742 83% 22k $556k (exactly $556,277) Coreffect Interactive
Formata older $9.99 902 63% 27k $270k (exactly $270,329) Nezon Production
CivCity: Rome older $9.99 814 71% 24k $244k (exactly $243,956) FireFly Studios, Firaxis Games
Summa Expeditionis $19.99 305 68% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Lobico Games
Pompeii: The Legacy $19.99 266 80% 8.0k $160k (exactly $159,520) Siscia Games
Medieval Siege $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Mind Inside Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.