Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Heist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Heist Sandbox?

Sandbox + Heist

Only 12 developers shipped a Heist Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Precinct, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×11228 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 40 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 40 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Heist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $269 → $449 → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Heist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $355k (exactly $354,608)
Top 5% $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 40
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Heist
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 10,768 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $350k, 1 in 20 over $7.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 40 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Teardown 2022 · $114M METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN 2015 · $44M Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018 · $28M Thief Simulator 2018 · $22M Hobo: Tough Life 2021 · $7.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN older $19.99 73,137 91% 2.2M $44M (exactly $43,860,259) KONAMI
Just Cause 4 Reloaded older $39.64 23,358 63% 701k $28M (exactly $27,777,334) Avalanche Studios
Thief Simulator older $19.99 37,377 88% 1.1M $22M (exactly $22,414,987) Noble Muffins
Hobo: Tough Life older $29.99 8,679 84% 260k $7.8M (exactly $7,808,496) Perun Creative
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
LEGO® Marvel Super Heroes 2 older $19.99 7,452 86% 224k $4.5M (exactly $4,468,964) TT Games, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Dead Rising 4 older $29.99 4,773 59% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,294,268) Capcom Game Studio Vancouver, Inc.
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
Thief Simulator 2 older $19.99 6,568 87% 197k $3.9M (exactly $3,938,830) CookieDev, Ultimate Games S.A.
The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time $14.99 2,361 90% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) That Fish, That Other Fish
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
Snap & Grab $7.99 58 91% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,903) No Goblin
Gauley : Experience Nepal · EA $14.99 18 88% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) Ashim Shakya
Cyber Academy · EA $11.99 5 100% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) JinjaGames
PolyCrime · EA $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) FoxGameDev
Another Day Another Dollar $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) 810 Game Studio
SpyGuys $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Olly
Beyond The Limits · EA $0.99 4 100% 120 $119 (exactly $119) HardFMGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.