Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Sandbox?

Sandbox + Spaceships

Only 11 developers shipped a Spaceship Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ostranauts, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2996 the market median. Revenue is up 975% on the market; 21 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 975% on the market, 21 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sandbox + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $268k (exactly $267,617)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 33
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 975% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 5,811 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $260k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Spaceflight Simulator · EA older $14.99 9,431 96% 283k $4.2M (exactly $4,241,121) Team Curiosity ✦
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Starship EVO · EA older $24.99 1,322 82% 40k $991k (exactly $991,103) Moonfire Entertainment
Space Pirates and Zombies older $9.99 2,231 91% 67k $669k (exactly $668,631) MinMax Games Ltd.
Flight Of Nova · EA older $29.99 537 93% 16k $483k (exactly $483,139) Aerovery Lab
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
eXoSpace Combat Engineer · EA $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Fantastimaker
Leaks In Space · EA $14.99 14 71% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Frostech Game Studio
Periapsis: Gravity Slingshot $5.99 27 81% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) PcZ Games
Hired Stars · EA $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Mark Kaps
Stellar Industrialist $2.99 18 88% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) PcZ Games
Drawn to Drift $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) FrogForgeGames
Infinite Empire · EA $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Better Tools LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.