Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot game?

Robots

Of 859 developers who shipped a Robot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,541 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $160; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×518 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 1,541 games are announced against 467 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 1,541 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 859
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.1k → $1.4k → $899 → $1.1k → $1.2k → $719 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 859
Bottom 30% $155 (exactly $155)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,996)
Top 5% $325k (exactly $325,133)
Developers, 2 yr 859
Released games 2,963
Announced 1,541
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 453,592 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $160, median $840, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $160. 8 in 10 of the 482 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,541 games are announced against 467 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Robots

133 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. RTS + Robots Poor odds $1.5k 21 devs
  2. Tactical + Robots Poor odds $1.4k 67 devs
  3. Multiple Endings + Robots Poor odds $1.4k 52 devs
  4. Point & Click + Robots Poor odds $1.3k 30 devs
  5. Roguelike + Robots Poor odds $1.3k 118 devs
  6. Roguelite + Robots Poor odds $1.3k 115 devs
  7. Resource Management + Robots Poor odds $1.3k 63 devs
  8. Simulation + Robots Poor odds $1.3k 126 devs
  9. Shooter + Robots Poor odds $1.2k 254 devs
  10. Auto Battler + Robots Poor odds $1.2k 20 devs
  11. Card Game + Robots Poor odds $1.2k 15 devs
  12. Destruction + Robots Poor odds $1.2k 30 devs
  13. Physics + Robots Poor odds $1.2k 98 devs
  14. Precision Platformer + Robots Poor odds $1.2k 35 devs
  15. RPG + Robots Poor odds $1.1k 118 devs
  16. Action-Adventure + Robots Poor odds $1.1k 145 devs
  17. Hack and Slash + Robots Poor odds $1.1k 44 devs
  18. Management + Robots Poor odds $1.1k 40 devs
  19. Split Screen + Robots Poor odds $1.1k 12 devs
  20. Walking Simulator + Robots Poor odds $945 13 devs
  21. Hero Shooter + Robots Poor odds $899 16 devs
  22. 4 Player Local + Robots Poor odds $899 12 devs
  23. Action + Robots Poor odds $898 527 devs
  24. Platformer + Robots Poor odds $898 127 devs
  25. Shoot 'Em Up + Robots Poor odds $898 93 devs
  26. Stealth + Robots Poor odds $898 32 devs
  27. Life Sim + Robots Poor odds $898 18 devs
  28. Survival Horror + Robots Poor odds $838 21 devs
  29. Tower Defense + Robots Poor odds $809 53 devs
  30. Real Time Tactics + Robots Poor odds $750 29 devs
  31. Puzzle + Robots Poor odds $748 148 devs
  32. Strategy + Robots Poor odds $719 182 devs
  33. Choices Matter + Robots Poor odds $719 54 devs
  34. Vehicular Combat + Robots Poor odds $719 28 devs
  35. Racing + Robots Poor odds $719 21 devs
  36. Rhythm + Robots Poor odds $719 15 devs
  37. Party-Based RPG + Robots Poor odds $719 14 devs
  38. Combat + Robots Poor odds $718 224 devs
  39. Survival + Robots Poor odds $629 75 devs
  40. Third-Person Shooter + Robots Poor odds $629 72 devs
  41. Action Roguelike + Robots Poor odds $599 121 devs
  42. 2D Platformer + Robots Poor odds $599 102 devs
  43. Logic + Robots Poor odds $599 76 devs
  44. Top-Down Shooter + Robots Poor odds $598 89 devs
  45. PvE + Robots Poor odds $479 146 devs
  46. Bullet Hell + Robots Poor odds $479 123 devs
  47. Perma Death + Robots Poor odds $479 30 devs
  48. Arcade + Robots Poor odds $449 178 devs
  49. 3D Platformer + Robots Poor odds $449 63 devs
  50. Score Attack + Robots Poor odds $449 62 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Call of Duty®: Black Ops III 2015 · $284M Detroit: Become Human 2020 · $272M ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition 2020 · $144M Stray 2022 · $142M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
ULTRAKILL · EA older $29.99 213,450 97% 6.4M $192M (exactly $192,040,965) Arsi "Hakita" Patala
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach older $39.99 65,350 86% 2.0M $78M (exactly $78,400,395) Steel Wool Studios
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
M.A.S.S. Builder $24.99 3,729 85% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,631) Vermillion Digital
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.