Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Robots

Of 148 developers who shipped a Robot Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 211 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×350 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 211 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 211 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 148
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $450 → $1.1k → $748 → $537 → $1.7k → $898 (still earning) → $330 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 148
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,286)
Top 5% $220k (exactly $219,527)
Developers, 2 yr 148
Released games 534
Announced 211
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Logic, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 11,411 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 87 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 211 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S: HELP WANTED older $29.99 12,257 95% 368k $11M (exactly $11,027,623) Steel Wool Studios
Machinarium older $19.99 17,552 95% 527k $11M (exactly $10,525,934) Amanita Design
Five Nights at Freddy's: Help Wanted 2 older $39.99 5,092 94% 153k $6.1M (exactly $6,108,872) Steel Wool Studios
The Turing Test older $24.99 6,246 87% 187k $4.7M (exactly $4,682,626) BULKHEAD
Haydee older $14.99 6,226 84% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,799,832) Haydee Interactive
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
INDUSTRIA older $19.99 3,053 73% 92k $1.8M (exactly $1,830,884) Bleakmill
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
Hail to the Rainbow $14.99 2,533 90% 76k $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) Носков Сергей
Mind Over Magnet $9.99 1,344 89% 40k $403k (exactly $402,797) Game Maker's Toolkit
Europa $14.99 778 85% 23k $350k (exactly $349,867) Helder Pinto, Chozabu (Alex PB), Novadu… (Helder Pinto, Chozabu (Alex PB), Novadust Entertainment)
Moon Mystery $19.99 551 67% 17k $330k (exactly $330,435) Cosmoscouts
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
Reach $29.99 244 66% 7.3k $220k (exactly $219,527) nDreams Elevation
Lab Rat $19.99 365 97% 11k $219k (exactly $218,890) Chump Squad
JOY OF PROGRAMMING - Software Engineering Simulator $17.99 378 76% 11k $204k (exactly $204,007) Prof. Scherer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.