Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Robots

Of 30 developers who shipped a Robot Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $730k, ×1175 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 57 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 57 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $4.6k → $26k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $300 → $300 (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $738k (exactly $737,705)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 97
Announced 57
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, Action, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 342,468 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $480, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $730k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M Five Nights at Freddy's 2 2014 · $5.7M Battle Ram 2023 · $2.0M 30XX 2023 · $1.5M Cogmind 2017 · EA · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Five Nights at Freddy's 2 older $7.99 23,871 93% 716k $5.7M (exactly $5,721,879) Scott Cawthon
Battle Ram older $29.99 2,204 85% 66k $2.0M (exactly $1,982,939) Runic Rise Games
30XX older $19.99 2,514 90% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,507,646) Batterystaple Games
Cogmind · EA older $24.99 1,560 95% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,532) Grid Sage Games
Oblivion Override older $17.99 1,692 90% 51k $913k (exactly $913,172) Humble Mill
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire
BZZZT older $11.99 952 93% 29k $342k (exactly $342,434) KO.DLL
Heart&Slash older $14.99 519 81% 16k $233k (exactly $233,394) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
NeuroVoider older $13.99 492 77% 15k $206k (exactly $206,492) Flying Oak Games
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
Corebreaker · EA $7.99 161 92% 4.8k $39k (exactly $38,592) aQuadiun
Endless Dark $7.99 115 99% 3.5k $28k (exactly $27,566) Little Light Studios, LLC
SANDRIPPER $5.99 35 91% 1.1k $6.3k (exactly $6,290) Mack
WATERPUNK $8.99 21 95% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) R_Games
Dead Oculus $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Andrew Wilker
Engine Eternal $9.99 15 93% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Absolutely Cookage
Alchemickal $5.99 15 93% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) rodbot

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.