Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military game?

Military

Of 864 developers who shipped a Military game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,555 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2558 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 1,555 games are announced against 483 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 1,555 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 864
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $2.1k → $1.6k → $1.3k → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 864
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,492)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346)
Developers, 2 yr 864
Released games 3,105
Announced 1,555
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 587,353 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 505 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,555 games are announced against 483 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Military

129 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. MMORPG + Military Dead $65k 3 devs
  2. Submarine + Military Dead $65k 8 devs
  3. Real-Time + Military Dead $37k 9 devs
  4. Racing + Military Dead $30k 5 devs
  5. God Game + Military Dead $5.7k 5 devs
  6. Combat Racing + Military Dead $2.7k 5 devs
  7. Spectacle fighter + Military Dead $2.2k 10 devs
  8. Investigation + Military Dead $1.6k 8 devs
  9. Battle Royale + Military Dead $480 14 devs
  10. Quick-Time Events + Military Dead $480 8 devs
  11. Shoot 'Em Up + Military Dead $479 74 devs
  12. Time Management + Military Dead $418 17 devs
  13. Top-Down Shooter + Military Dead $359 75 devs
  14. 3D Fighter + Military Dead $359 20 devs
  15. Parkour + Military Dead $359 7 devs
  16. Bullet Hell + Military Dead $300 57 devs
  17. Score Attack + Military Dead $300 31 devs
  18. Hero Shooter + Military Dead $300 30 devs
  19. Beat 'em up + Military Dead $300 14 devs
  20. Twin Stick Shooter + Military Dead $300 12 devs
  21. Sports + Military Dead $300 8 devs
  22. MOBA + Military Dead $299 11 devs
  23. Hidden Object + Military Dead $299 9 devs
  24. Arena Shooter + Military Dead $270 60 devs
  25. Card Battler + Military Dead $270 13 devs
  26. 3D Platformer + Military Dead $180 32 devs
  27. Puzzle + Military Dead $150 33 devs
  28. Swordplay + Military Dead $148 9 devs
  29. 2D Fighter + Military Dead $90 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M Titanfall® 2 2020 · $229M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands older $49.99 99,590 78% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,355,123) Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade)
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 $69.99 14,063 44% 422k $30M (exactly $29,528,081) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware)
Pavlov $24.99 37,865 88% 1.1M $28M (exactly $28,387,390) Vankrupt Games
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
GROUND BRANCH $29.99 22,391 83% 672k $20M (exactly $20,145,183) BlackFoot Studios, MicroProse Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.