Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Investigation game?

Investigation + Military

Only 8 developers shipped a Military Investigation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lavender Quartz 境界秤動, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.6k against a market of $630. 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 17 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $90 → $1.8k → $6.9k
Outcomes for Investigation + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,680)
Top 5% $108k (exactly $107,910)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 33
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Investigation
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 667 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lavender Quartz 境界秤動 $11.99 300 95% 9.0k $108k (exactly $107,910) Edanoue, Inc.
Agent Horny - Season 1 $14.99 66 75% 2.0k $30k (exactly $29,680) Mr.CreepGames
Field Hospital: Dr. Taylor's Story older $4.99 105 89% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,718) Gard Interactive
My Military Life older $4.99 99 90% 3.0k $15k (exactly $14,820) RealStone Studio
Paracom $10.99 21 90% 630 $6.9k (exactly $6,924) Steel Widow Klan
The Faction older $19.99 11 63% 330 $6.6k (exactly $6,597) GamesBraz
After The War older $4.99 36 36% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) piratecat games
COPS 2170 The Power of Law older $11.99 13 69% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) GFI
Pleiades - A Subversion Saga Game older $7.99 9 88% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) Joshua Linscott, 1122 Industries
Bookstore Simulator older $9.99 7 28% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Bookstore Simulator
Frontline Footage · EA $4.99 11 54% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) D4rkSt0rm Studios
Renounced · EA $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Emergency Exit
SNEAKALOT $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Bami Michael
Circle Begins $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) LAMSON Forge
Dark Sea $0.99 8 87% 240 $238 (exactly $238) DarkSignal Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.