Do I ship it?

GamesTwin Stick ShooterTwin Stick Shooter + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Twin Stick Shooter?

Twin Stick Shooter + Military

Only 12 developers shipped a Military Twin Stick Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cleared Hot, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 40 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 40 announced, ×8.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Twin Stick Shooter + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.8k → $450 → $598 → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Twin Stick Shooter + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $748 (exactly $748)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 47
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Twin Stick Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Twin Stick Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 96% positive over 4,033 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $740, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Twin Stick Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Psychological HorrorFair9 devs · median $718 · 4 announced
  2. + Looter ShooterPoor odds18 devs · median $16k · 44 announced
  3. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  4. + Tower DefensePoor odds12 devs · median $6.7k · 25 announced
  5. + MedievalPoor odds8 devs · median $6.3k · 32 announced
  6. + LootPoor odds24 devs · median $5.4k · 62 announced
  7. + Action RPGPoor odds52 devs · median $5.1k · 96 announced
  8. + Dark FantasyPoor odds33 devs · median $4.7k · 65 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds64 devs · median $4.6k · 122 announced
  10. + 2D FighterPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 28 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds30 devs · median $3.0k · 70 announced
  12. + DestructionPoor odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 39 announced

All 90 pairs on the Twin Stick Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
War Mongrels older $44.99 1,826 72% 55k $2.5M (exactly $2,464,552) Destructive Creations
Cleared Hot · EA $17.99 3,934 96% 118k $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) Not Knowing Corporation
Furious Angels older $4.99 345 87% 10k $52k (exactly $51,646) MorfeoDev
DESTRUCTURE: Among Debris older $9.99 158 90% 4.7k $47k (exactly $47,353) Team Instant Defeat
Naval Warfare older $6.99 189 58% 5.7k $40k (exactly $39,633) Game Distillery s.r.o.
Blackwind older $24.99 46 52% 1.4k $34k (exactly $34,486) Drakkar Dev
Son of a Gun $9.99 80 78% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) Crank Goblin
Cloud Cutter older $7.99 98 85% 2.9k $23k (exactly $23,491) Just Two ltd.
Tanky Tanks 2 older $9.99 45 100% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) EpiXR Games UG
Die Again older $12.99 31 90% 930 $12k (exactly $12,081) VarnGameDev
Tacticell Arena $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Antheed
Frame Machina - OcularZero $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Demigrz
Dead Christmas $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Mad Park Games
DreadHold · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Sam Parton, Tecno
Blitz Society $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Ryan Evans
Breaching Harkon $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) 8x8BitGames, Connor Langan
One Shot All Kill $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Creative Universe
Escape the Kreegan $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Entropy Is Software Development

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.