Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Hell › Bullet Hell + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Military

Of 57 developers who shipped a Military Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 31 developers shipped in the last year and 86 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 86 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $683 → $240 → $386 → $59 → $299 → $300 → $479 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 5% $23k (exactly $22,904)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 185
Announced 86
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Bullet Hell; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 613 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. Nearly all of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Azur Lane Crosswave 2020 · $7.8M Hunt Down The Freeman 2018 · $1.1M Beach Invasion 1944 2022 · $311k ISEKAI FRONTLINE 2023 · $216k Commando Collection 2024 · $212k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Hunt Down The Freeman older $9.99 3,785 54% 114k $1.1M (exactly $1,134,364) Royal Rudius Entertainment
Beach Invasion 1944 older $9.99 1,038 84% 31k $311k (exactly $311,089) AIx2 Games
ISEKAI FRONTLINE older $3.99 1,806 77% 54k $216k (exactly $216,178) Studio Ginkgo
Commando Collection older $4.99 1,414 95% 42k $212k (exactly $211,676) Macrojoy
QP Shooting - Dangerous!! older $7.99 378 94% 11k $91k (exactly $90,607) Orange_Juice
Akai Katana Shin older $29.99 91 96% 2.7k $82k (exactly $81,873) CITY CONNECTION, TAKE×0FF
Raiden Legacy - Steam Edition older $9.99 259 54% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) Dotemu
Aircraft Evolution older $8.99 221 80% 6.6k $60k (exactly $59,604) Satur Entertainment
Furious Angels older $4.99 345 87% 10k $52k (exactly $51,646) MorfeoDev
UNDER DEFEAT $19.99 81 95% 2.4k $49k (exactly $48,576) CITY CONNECTION, TAKE×0FF
Astral Lords $12.99 105 80% 3.2k $41k (exactly $40,918) Dark Dimension
BROTANK $4.99 153 81% 4.6k $23k (exactly $22,904) Dfirend Games
Beach Invasion 1915-Gallipoli $7.99 73 71% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) AIx2 Games
Gun Reflex VR $8.99 42 61% 1.3k $11k (exactly $11,327) OBGames
Space Dragons $9.99 36 83% 1.1k $11k (exactly $10,789) TEAM Black Hat Robot
UNSIGHT $7.99 42 50% 1.3k $10k (exactly $10,067) C51 Games
Threads of War $4.99 45 97% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) KoS
Rising Sun - Iron Aces $14.99 13 76% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Moebius One Games
The Shape Killer - Sniper Game $4.99 23 86% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) SouthBoxStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.