Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Military

Of 60 developers who shipped a Military Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 30 developers shipped in the last year and 105 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 105 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $1.8k → $299 → $360 → $449 → $356 → $210 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $270 (exactly $270)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,158)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $11,327)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 242
Announced 105
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, FPS
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 765 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 8 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

I Am Your Beast 2024 · $3.2M Heliborne Collection 2017 · $2.9M Strike Force Heroes 2023 · $2.5M Vox Machinae 2022 · $1.1M SPRAWL 2023 · $882k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
I Am Your Beast older $19.99 5,275 97% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,163,417) Strange Scaffold
Heliborne Collection older $29.99 3,255 76% 98k $2.9M (exactly $2,928,524) Klabater
Strike Force Heroes older $19.99 4,193 79% 126k $2.5M (exactly $2,514,542) Sky9 Games
Vox Machinae older $29.99 1,177 87% 35k $1.1M (exactly $1,058,947) Space Bullet Dynamics Corporation
SPRAWL older $14.99 1,961 87% 59k $882k (exactly $881,862) MAETH
Masked Shooters 2 older $29.99 618 75% 19k $556k (exactly $556,015) Nightbinder
BRUTAL JOHN 2 · EA $12.99 546 94% 16k $213k (exactly $212,776) OldSchool Laws Team
BEARS, VODKA, BALALAIKA! 🐻 older $3.99 1,680 89% 50k $201k (exactly $201,096) Rabotiagi games
Zombie Training Simulator older $19.99 227 92% 6.8k $136k (exactly $136,132) Acceleroto, Inc.
BEAR, VODKA, STALINGRAD!🐻 older $3.99 839 94% 25k $100k (exactly $100,428) Rabotiagi games
FMTC $7.00 75 78% 2.3k $16k (exactly $15,750) FMTC
Gun Reflex VR $8.99 42 61% 1.3k $11k (exactly $11,327) OBGames
Assault On Proxima $9.99 32 81% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Delta Video Games
Escape From Infection Zone $39.99 6 100% 180 $7.2k (exactly $7,198) Funbang
SkillWarz · EA $9.99 24 95% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Baltverge Games
CYBER92 DATAWAR $9.92 14 50% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,166) Cyber92 Solo Developer
WARRIORS · EA $17.99 6 0% 180 $3.2k (exactly $3,238) BAKROS DYNAMICS
Red Crucible Assault · EA $14.99 7 100% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) Massive Head Games
Cyborg: Rise $7.99 13 92% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) fish world

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.