Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Military

Of 33 developers who shipped a Military Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 18 developers shipped in the last year and 31 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 475% on the market, 31 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $1.8k → $150 → $150 → $239 → $628 (still earning) → $119 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 98
Announced 31
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 475% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Tactical
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Realistic, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 41% positive over 26,892 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $150, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
Half-Life: Opposing Force older $4.99 25,448 95% 763k $3.8M (exactly $3,809,566) Gearbox Software
Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice older $19.99 3,965 93% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,377,810) Mimimi Games
Gunsmith Simulator $24.99 3,165 84% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) GameHunters
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
NITE Team 4 - Military Hacking Division older $19.99 1,018 90% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) Alice & Smith
Gunsmith · EA older $19.99 1,004 71% 30k $602k (exactly $602,099) SCT
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
63 Days $29.99 413 72% 12k $372k (exactly $371,576) Destructive Creations
Shellshock $2.99 104 89% 3.1k $9.3k (exactly $9,329) Man the Barricades Ltd
Dungeon Dev $3.99 63 85% 1.9k $7.5k (exactly $7,541) Team ETTU
Paracom $10.99 21 90% 630 $6.9k (exactly $6,924) Steel Widow Klan
Briefcase $3.99 39 100% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) Yuri Antunes
Terminal Error $8.99 8 12% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Endspace Studios
To the Stars Idle $2.99 10 80% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Denys Osypenko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.