Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3?

Match 3

Of 306 developers who shipped a Match 3 in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 281 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 181 developers shipped in the last year and 281 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 281 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 306
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $298 → $449 → $299 → $359 → $267 → $239 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 306
Bottom 30% $45 (exactly $45)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 5% $44k (exactly $43,756)
Developers, 2 yr 306
Released games 1,677
Announced 281
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Match 3
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 8,110 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $43k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 199 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 281 games are announced against 181 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Match 3

19 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Match 3 + Romance Fair $1.3k 25 devs
  2. Match 3 + LGBTQ+ Fair $1.2k 13 devs
  3. Match 3 + Demons Fair $779 9 devs
  4. Match 3 + Magic Fair $718 35 devs
  5. Match 3 + Dark Fantasy Fair $539 14 devs
  6. Match 3 + Dogs Long shot $90 12 devs
  7. Match 3 + Female Protagonist Poor odds $1.1k 27 devs
  8. Match 3 + Fantasy Poor odds $719 65 devs
  9. Match 3 + Cats Poor odds $298 23 devs
  10. Match 3 + Futuristic Poor odds $208 9 devs
  11. Match 3 + Horror Dead $6.1k 6 devs
  12. Match 3 + Historical Dead $3.6k 5 devs
  13. Match 3 + Medieval Dead $538 12 devs
  14. Match 3 + Nature Dead $449 12 devs
  15. Match 3 + Mystery Dead $390 8 devs
  16. Match 3 + Artificial Intelligence Dead $356 7 devs
  17. Match 3 + Detective Dead $270 9 devs
  18. Match 3 + Sci-fi Dead $180 9 devs
  19. Match 3 + Space Dead $150 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HuniePop 2015 · $7.2M Mirror 2: Project X 2022 · EA · $6.6M HuniePop 2: Double Date 2021 · $4.9M Mirror 2018 · $4.3M The Legend of Bum-Bo 2019 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HuniePop older $9.99 23,989 96% 720k $7.2M (exactly $7,189,503) HuniePot
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
HuniePop 2: Double Date older $19.99 8,149 91% 244k $4.9M (exactly $4,886,955) HuniePot
Mirror older $1.99 72,623 96% 2.2M $4.3M (exactly $4,335,593) KAGAMI WORKS
The Legend of Bum-Bo older $14.99 5,654 80% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon)
POPUCOM $19.99 3,432 87% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) Hypergryph
Lumines Arise $39.99 848 94% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,017,346) Enhance, Monstars Inc.
Battle Chef Brigade Deluxe older $19.99 1,624 95% 49k $974k (exactly $973,913) Trinket Studios
Zuma Deluxe older $4.99 6,481 95% 194k $970k (exactly $970,206) PopCap Games, Inc.
Bejeweled® 3 older $4.99 6,096 96% 183k $913k (exactly $912,571) PopCap Games, Inc.
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition $14.99 522 77% 16k $235k (exactly $234,743) Infinity Plus 2
Dogpile $9.99 708 95% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) Studio Folly, Toot Games, Foot
Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 3 $19.99 341 96% 10k $204k (exactly $204,498) Strange Scaffold
Mindcop $14.99 413 94% 12k $186k (exactly $185,726) Andre Gareis
Spirit Swap: Lofi Beats to Match-3 To $19.99 239 94% 7.2k $143k (exactly $143,328) Soft Not Weak, LLC
Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2 $9.99 389 93% 12k $117k (exactly $116,583) Hue Axis Entertainment
Mythmatch $19.99 124 98% 3.7k $74k (exactly $74,363) Team Artichoke

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.