Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Match 3?

Match 3 + LGBTQ+

Only 13 developers shipped an LGBTQ+ Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Spirit Swap: Lofi Beats to Match-3 To, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×10 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 3 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 3 announced, ×0.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $7.2k → $540 → $1.3k → $6.6k → $119 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Match 3 + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,597)
Top 5% $143k (exactly $143,328)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 61
Announced 3
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Match 3
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 572 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  4. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  5. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  6. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  8. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  9. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  10. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  11. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds24 devs · median $4.8k · 33 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HuniePop 2: Double Date older $19.99 8,149 91% 244k $4.9M (exactly $4,886,955) HuniePot
Furry Shades of Gay 2: A Shade Gayer older $9.99 738 96% 22k $221k (exactly $221,179) Furlough Games
Furry Shades of Gay older $6.99 835 91% 25k $175k (exactly $175,100) Furlough Games
Spirit Swap: Lofi Beats to Match-3 To $19.99 239 94% 7.2k $143k (exactly $143,328) Soft Not Weak, LLC
Furry Shades of Gay 3: Still Gayer older $9.99 403 95% 12k $121k (exactly $120,779) Furlough Games
NALOGI older $1.99 1,515 78% 45k $90k (exactly $90,446) CUTE ANIME GIRLS
Heartspell: Horizon Academy $19.99 116 96% 3.5k $70k (exactly $69,565) Dire Kitten Games
My Cute Fuhrer older $1.99 992 85% 30k $59k (exactly $59,222) CUTE ANIME GIRLS
Princess Farmer older $14.99 125 96% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Samobee Games
CATGIRL LOVER older $1.99 867 76% 26k $52k (exactly $51,760) CUTE ANIME GIRLS
Legends of Gems $8.99 139 81% 4.2k $37k (exactly $37,488) 南京西木优洛网络科技有限公司
Matchmaker: Dungeon Heart $19.99 11 81% 330 $6.6k (exactly $6,597) Ghost Moth
Garenburg Penitence: The Riflebird $2.99 15 93% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) Creatalsoftware Games
Sweet Dreams Café · EA $3.99 11 90% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Bite Size Games Ltd
Slime Girl Smoothies Encore! $19.99 2 50% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Shady Corner Games
AD BLOCKER: An Action Puzzle Game $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) The AD BLOCKER Team
Waifu Simulator $4.99 6 50% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Slippy Floor
Hentai Furry Foxy $0.99 27 92% 810 $802 (exactly $802) Cyber Keks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.