Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Dogs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dog Match 3?

Match 3 + Dogs

Only 12 developers shipped a Dog Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dogpile, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $90, ×0.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×447 the market median. Revenue is up 16050% on the market; 4 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 16050% on the market, 4 announced, ×0.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Dogs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Match 3 + Dogs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $90 (exactly $90)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 5% $212k (exactly $212,188)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 29
Announced 4
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Dogs
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Match 3
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 6 games average 94% positive over 768 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $90, 1 in 4 over $1.5k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  8. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  10. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  11. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds24 devs · median $4.8k · 33 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Furry Shades of Gay 2: A Shade Gayer older $9.99 738 96% 22k $221k (exactly $221,179) Furlough Games
Dogpile $9.99 708 95% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) Studio Folly, Toot Games, Foot
Sex and the Furry Titty 2: Sins of the City older $9.99 708 91% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) Furlough Games
Furry Shades of Gay older $6.99 835 91% 25k $175k (exactly $175,100) Furlough Games
Furry Shades of Gay 3: Still Gayer older $9.99 403 95% 12k $121k (exactly $120,779) Furlough Games
Sex and the Furry Titty 3: Come Inside, Sweety older $9.99 325 92% 9.8k $97k (exactly $97,402) Furlough Games
Furry Reich 🐺 older $3.99 189 77% 5.7k $23k (exactly $22,623) Furry Dreams Lab
Roguematch : The Extraplanar Invasion $14.99 33 84% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Starstruck Games
Furry Love & Sex older $6.99 51 82% 1.5k $11k (exactly $10,695) Octo Games
1001 Jigsaw. Home Sweet Home older $14.99 13 61% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Creobit
Puppy Link - Tile Connect $2.99 17 88% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) ZT-Studio
Jixo: The Season of Joy Collector's Edition $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) MixoGames Ltd.
Home for Friends: Beloved Pets Collector's Edition $8.99 4 75% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Do Games Limited
Droppy Dog $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Helen Tran, M81 Studio
Pop DS $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) XPS Technology
Bubbles in the Air $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Elder Bear
Dog Gone Cats: Tail of 300 Days (Pawlike Edition) $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Team Pueo
Farmyard Pals Jigsaw Puzzles $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Boogygames Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.