Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Match 3?

Match 3 + Horror

Only 6 developers shipped a Horror Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $6.1k against a market of $480. 5 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 12.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 5 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Match 3 + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,081)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,752)
Top 5% $204k (exactly $204,498)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 40
Announced 5
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Match 3
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 9,454 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  8. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  10. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  11. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Miss Neko 3 older $2.99 4,470 92% 134k $401k (exactly $400,959) Double W
Furry Shades of Gay 2: A Shade Gayer older $9.99 738 96% 22k $221k (exactly $221,179) Furlough Games
Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 3 $19.99 341 96% 10k $204k (exactly $204,498) Strange Scaffold
Miss Neko 2 older $1.99 2,608 91% 78k $156k (exactly $155,698) Double W
Furry Shades of Gay 3: Still Gayer older $9.99 403 95% 12k $121k (exactly $120,779) Furlough Games
Spooky Bonus older $9.99 290 96% 8.7k $87k (exactly $86,913) Grey Alien Games
Critter Crunch older $6.99 276 94% 8.3k $58k (exactly $57,877) Capybara Games
My Cute Succubus older $2.99 258 77% 7.7k $23k (exactly $23,143) CUTE ANIME GIRLS
Jewel Match Twilight 3 Collector's Edition older $9.99 42 95% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) Suricate Software
Jewel Match Dracula Collector's Edition $13.99 28 89% 840 $12k (exactly $11,752) Suricate Software
Rune Ark $6.99 29 65% 870 $6.1k (exactly $6,081) WelesGames
Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 1 Re-Raptored $4.99 31 87% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Pedalboard Games
Cursed House 16 $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) LGT SIA
Cursed House 6 $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) LGT SIA
Cursed House 14 $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) LGT SIA
Spooky Dwellers 3 $13.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) IKIGames
Spooky Dwellers 4 $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) IKIGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.