Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Match 3?

Match 3 + Sci-fi

Only 9 developers shipped a Sci-fi Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, POPUCOM, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $180 against a market of $480. 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 18 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $0 → $204k
Outcomes for Match 3 + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 34
Announced 18
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Match 3
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,955 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $180, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  8. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  10. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  11. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
POPUCOM $19.99 3,432 87% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) Hypergryph
Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 3 $19.99 341 96% 10k $204k (exactly $204,498) Strange Scaffold
Puzzle Quest: Galactrix older $9.99 311 49% 9.3k $93k (exactly $93,207) Infinite Interactive
Super Star Path older $4.99 340 82% 10k $51k (exactly $50,898) DYA Games
Rainbow Reactor older $14.99 71 94% 2.1k $32k (exactly $31,929) Tunermaxx Media GmbH, Muikkumedia Oy
SEX Tentacles [18+] older $3.99 181 57% 5.4k $22k (exactly $21,666) Romantic Room
CyberCum: Pussy Attack❗️ older $3.99 131 61% 3.9k $16k (exactly $15,681) Octo Games
Orbox C older $4.99 76 93% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,377) wins_84, gamebalance
Furry Love & Sex older $6.99 51 82% 1.5k $11k (exactly $10,695) Octo Games
Torment Hexus · EA $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) TMA Games LLC
Space Bubbles Must Die! $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) FobTi interactive
Junk-o-Tron $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Kobold's Keep Games
Neo-Node $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) AcanLord
StarL 6 $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) IteraLabs
FISTAGON $10.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Virtual Dawn
K-Bot $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) EncreStarStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.