Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Match 3?

Match 3 + Futuristic

Only 9 developers shipped a Futuristic Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, POPUCOM, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210, ×0.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 95% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 11 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Match 3 + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $208 (exactly $208)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,790)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 29
Announced 11
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Match 3
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,909 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $210, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  8. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  10. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  11. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
POPUCOM $19.99 3,432 87% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) Hypergryph
Gamer Girls: Futanari older $6.99 139 63% 4.2k $29k (exactly $29,148) Pirates Of The Digital Sea
CyberCum: Pussy Attack❗️ older $3.99 131 61% 3.9k $16k (exactly $15,681) Octo Games
Slot Shots Pinball Ultimate Edition older $19.99 22 81% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Pinblend Studios
Furry Love & Sex older $6.99 51 82% 1.5k $11k (exactly $10,695) Octo Games
Torment Hexus · EA $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) TMA Games LLC
Project: Stellar Girls $4.99 32 46% 960 $4.8k (exactly $4,790) 430Games
Hanoi Puzzles: Solid Match older $2.99 53 94% 1.6k $4.8k (exactly $4,754) Hanoi Studios
T-Kara Puzzles older $4.99 14 92% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Mexond
Jigsaw Puzzle - Pro Edition older $4.99 14 85% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Boogygames Studios
Arcadia: Cloudbound $7.99 3 66% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Paper Plane Studio
Hentai Puzzle Simulator: Animal Orgasm 💦🔞[ADULT NSFW] $0.99 7 71% 210 $208 (exactly $208) 17Studio
Junk-o-Tron $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Kobold's Keep Games
Neo-Node $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) AcanLord
FISTAGON $10.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Virtual Dawn
Slots And Shots $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) OriginlessGamerApps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.