Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Match 3?

Match 3 + Nature

Only 12 developers shipped a Nature Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Jixo 3: Hidden Horizons Collector's Edition, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $450 against a market of $480. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 13 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $628 → $359 → $358 → $269 → $300 → $479 → $148 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Match 3 + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $719 (exactly $719)
Top 5% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 89
Announced 13
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $1.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 70% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Match 3
Price point
$1.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 72 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $1.1k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  8. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  10. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  11. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Critter Crunch older $6.99 276 94% 8.3k $58k (exactly $57,877) Capybara Games
Story of Animal Sprite older $8.99 117 89% 3.5k $32k (exactly $31,555) Lunaforge Studios
Cave Quest 2 older $12.99 52 92% 1.6k $20k (exactly $20,264) MD Studio
Slot Shots Pinball Ultimate Edition older $19.99 22 81% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Pinblend Studios
Tiny Bubbles older $9.99 44 90% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Pine Street Codeworks LLC
Artifact Quest 2 - Match 3 Puzzle older $6.99 50 82% 1.5k $10k (exactly $10,485) Best Friend Games
Spring Bonus older $6.99 41 87% 1.2k $8.6k (exactly $8,598) Grey Alien Games
Heart of Moon : The Mask of Seasons older $5.99 34 100% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) Unikgame
Tile Tale older $4.99 35 62% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Sokpop Collective
SuiCats older $1.99 85 95% 2.6k $5.1k (exactly $5,074) Beza's Workshop
Jixo 3: Hidden Horizons Collector's Edition $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) MixoGames Ltd.
Hentai Furry Foxy $0.99 27 92% 810 $802 (exactly $802) Cyber Keks
Relaxing Time: Enchanting France Collector's Edition $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Do Games Limited
爪爪改造家 PawRebuild $0.99 23 95% 690 $683 (exactly $683) 冷笑黑妖
Around the World 5: Beautiful America Collector's Edition $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Avi Games
Frog Box $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Defaultt Games
Sea Life Explorer Collector's Edition $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Point8 Games Inc.
Wild Lynx Jigsaw $1.99 3 100% 90 $179 (exactly $179) Boogygames Studios
Crystal Garden $0.99 5 60% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Aleksa Racovic
Matchy Way Tales $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Pavlo Nasonkin, Alexander Atiasov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.