Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Match 3?

Match 3 + Magic

Of 35 developers who shipped a Magic Match 3 in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 36 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 36 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $2.3k → $839 → $539 → $1.6k → $6.1k → $839 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Match 3 + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,876)
Top 5% $70k (exactly $69,565)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 179
Announced 36
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 210% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Match 3; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, RPG, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 1,457 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $69k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  8. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  9. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  10. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  11. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds24 devs · median $4.8k · 33 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Humans are not that against Lizardwomen older $3.99 2,807 93% 84k $336k (exactly $335,998) Hue Axis Entertainment
Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition older $17.99 434 80% 13k $234k (exactly $234,230) Dotemu, Capybara Games
LOLLIPOP! older $4.99 1,318 75% 40k $197k (exactly $197,305) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Hero Emblems II older $11.99 255 58% 7.7k $92k (exactly $91,724) HeatPot Games
Marble Duel: Sphere-Matching Tactical Fantasy older $14.99 181 59% 5.4k $81k (exactly $81,396) HeroLabs
Heartspell: Horizon Academy $19.99 116 96% 3.5k $70k (exactly $69,565) Dire Kitten Games
Project: Mirror older $4.99 444 76% 13k $66k (exactly $66,467) 430Games, ArtistBOA
Faerie Solitaire Harvest older $14.99 143 79% 4.3k $64k (exactly $64,307) Subsoap
Princess Farmer older $14.99 125 96% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Samobee Games
Roguematch : The Extraplanar Invasion $14.99 33 84% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Starstruck Games
Tasty Bite: Food dating simulator $6.99 63 95% 1.9k $13k (exactly $13,211) DuckMemeticsGames
转生魔塔 $11.99 26 88% 780 $9.4k (exactly $9,352) Zeros
Slime Soup $4.99 50 90% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) VANDERMAESEN GAMES
Torment Hexus · EA $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) TMA Games LLC
Rune Ark $6.99 29 65% 870 $6.1k (exactly $6,081) WelesGames
Wide Slash Hero $13.99 14 92% 420 $5.9k (exactly $5,876) CelBranch
Avalon Jewels 2 Collector's Edition $14.99 11 90% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Anawiki Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.