Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading game?

Trading

Of 469 developers who shipped a Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,054 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×7.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×1481 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 1,054 games are announced against 317 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 1,054 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 469
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $6.0k → $3.0k → $4.8k → $8.4k → $7.2k → $3.9k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 469
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,597)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $39,927)
Top 5% $704k (exactly $703,683)
Developers, 2 yr 469
Released games 1,163
Announced 1,054
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 232,618 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 233 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,054 games are announced against 317 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Trading

20 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Trading + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $16k 15 devs
  2. Trading + Pirates Poor odds $15k 12 devs
  3. Trading + Alternate History Poor odds $14k 8 devs
  4. Trading + Modern Poor odds $11k 32 devs
  5. Trading + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $10k 16 devs
  6. Trading + Naval Poor odds $8.5k 12 devs
  7. Trading + Medieval Poor odds $7.2k 56 devs
  8. Trading + Zombies Poor odds $6.8k 13 devs
  9. Trading + Capitalism Poor odds $5.9k 166 devs
  10. Trading + Fantasy Poor odds $5.4k 63 devs
  11. Trading + Historical Poor odds $5.2k 38 devs
  12. Trading + Magic Poor odds $3.3k 17 devs
  13. Trading + Nature Poor odds $3.1k 27 devs
  14. Trading + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.0k 36 devs
  15. Trading + Space Poor odds $3.0k 32 devs
  16. Trading + Military Poor odds $3.0k 15 devs
  17. Trading + War Poor odds $2.2k 15 devs
  18. Trading + Crime Poor odds $1.6k 18 devs
  19. Trading + Futuristic Poor odds $1.2k 22 devs
  20. Trading + Female Protagonist Poor odds $449 12 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NBA 2K25 2024 · $65M NBA 2K26 2025 · $54M Elite Dangerous 2015 · $49M Supermarket Simulator 2025 · $48M Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Elite Dangerous older $19.99 82,399 76% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,414,680) Frontier Developments
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
Retro Rewind - Video Store Simulator $19.90 10,118 95% 304k $6.0M (exactly $6,040,446) Blood Pact Studios
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Storage Hunter Simulator $24.99 3,866 78% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Raccoons Studio
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.