Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Trading game?

Trading + Artificial Intelligence

Only 15 developers shipped an AI Trading game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BidKing, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×33 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×4199 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 26 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 32.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.1k → $300 → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Median $16k (exactly $15,588)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,154)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 41
Announced 26
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 35% positive over 23,348 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
SuperPower 3 older $29.99 982 10% 29k $884k (exactly $883,505) GolemLabs
Wayward Terran Frontier: Zero Falls · EA older $29.99 487 66% 15k $438k (exactly $438,154) Reason Generator Inc.
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
Hypermarket Simulator · EA $14.99 423 80% 13k $190k (exactly $190,223) Croissant Games
TCG Multiplayer Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 198 54% 5.9k $77k (exactly $77,161) Alkame Games
Rugby Union Team Manager 4 older $39.99 60 70% 1.8k $72k (exactly $71,982) Alternative Software Ltd
Tennis Manager 2021 older $9.99 191 75% 5.7k $57k (exactly $57,243) Rebound
King of Jade: Stone Tycoon $7.99 155 81% 4.7k $37k (exactly $37,154) 909Game
Grand MALL Simulator · EA $5.99 134 79% 4.0k $24k (exactly $24,080) Minds2Bros
Loot & Ledger $11.99 63 71% 1.9k $23k (exactly $22,661) Eddy
Smoke & Lottery Simulator $9.99 57 85% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,083) EdenStudio
European Logistics Tycoon $12.99 40 65% 1.2k $16k (exactly $15,588) Warnicke Gamedesign
RolemIAster · EA $5.99 23 56% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) ABAFE
BookStore Simulator $7.99 17 41% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Dark Mind

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.