Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Trading game?

Trading + Female Protagonist

Only 12 developers shipped a Female-Led Trading game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Console Shop Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×521 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 27 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 27 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $232k → $395 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $7.4k (exactly $7,404)
Top 5% $248k (exactly $247,525)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 30
Announced 27
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,078 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $450, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 27 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Dust to the End older $11.99 1,076 78% 32k $387k (exactly $387,037) Haojoy Game, Zjoy Game
Console Shop Simulator · EA $15.99 516 92% 15k $248k (exactly $247,525) Lance Games
Concubine · EA $14.99 517 81% 16k $232k (exactly $232,495) Upgrade Entertainment
Hero of the Kingdom: The Lost Tales 2 older $6.99 684 89% 21k $143k (exactly $143,435) Lonely Troops
Uncharted Ocean older $4.99 563 70% 17k $84k (exactly $84,281) HiRabbitgame
Booze Masters: Freezing Moonshine older $14.99 97 83% 2.9k $44k (exactly $43,621) Asmodev
The Emerald Tablet older $19.99 21 57% 630 $13k (exactly $12,594) {uni}
Moonlight Basket older $6.99 45 93% 1.4k $9.4k (exactly $9,436) Inu to Neko
Prostitute Simulator 3 $12.99 19 31% 570 $7.4k (exactly $7,404) Doky
Destination Gemini $8.99 13 100% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Hubert Cachat
Starving Merchant $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) VordieDev
TDM : Task Drill Maniac · EA $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) ZETACORE INC.
From Aristocrat's Pet to Culinary Queen: Reigning Over Flavors and Forbidden Desires $3.29 4 25% 120 $395 (exactly $395) Myriad
Galleons of Fortune: Pioneers $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Grupo Axertia, Carrera de Indias
Redlight : Shop Empire · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Draconum Games
Fayrehaven $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Cosynook Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.