Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Trading game?

Trading + Nature

Of 27 developers who shipped a Nature Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1602 the market median. Revenue is up 865% on the market; 63 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 865% on the market, 63 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $1.6k → $27k (still earning) → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,088)
Top 5% $761k (exactly $760,834)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 65
Announced 63
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 865% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Economy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Isometric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 12,544 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
The Oregon Trail older $29.99 1,220 79% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,097,634) Gameloft
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping $7.49 3,386 95% 102k $761k (exactly $760,834) Lunheim Studios
Synergy $24.99 693 79% 21k $520k (exactly $519,542) Leikir Studio
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo
Time on Frog Island older $19.99 284 71% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) Half Past Yellow
Garden Simulator older $14.99 358 82% 11k $161k (exactly $160,993) PRODUKTIVKELLER Studios
Tlatoani: Aztec Cities $19.99 180 83% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios
Lure Of Passion $5.99 452 89% 14k $81k (exactly $81,224) Snakerser's Games
Tiny Garden $12.99 108 85% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Ao Norte
Minsgon Simulator $9.99 112 78% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Vokcen
Nom Nom: Cozy Forest Café $12.99 80 92% 2.4k $31k (exactly $31,176) Anaïs Salla
Village Merchant $14.99 60 68% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) Beast Games S. A., Console Labs S. A.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.