Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Trading game?

Trading + Space

Of 32 developers who shipped a Space Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is up 855% on the market; 87 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 855% on the market, 87 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $5.8k → $4.5k → $2.2k → $4.0k → $36k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,982)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 110
Announced 87
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 855% on the market, supply 335% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Trading; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, Mining
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 7,026 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elite Dangerous older $19.99 82,399 76% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,414,680) Frontier Developments
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Anno 2205™ older $39.99 6,115 70% 183k $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) Blue Byte
X Rebirth older $29.99 5,156 42% 155k $4.6M (exactly $4,638,853) Egosoft
Rebel Galaxy older $19.99 7,255 85% 218k $4.4M (exactly $4,350,824) Double Damage Games
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Vanguard Galaxy · EA $8.99 565 90% 17k $152k (exactly $152,380) Bat Roost Games
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
Monopoly: Star Wars™ Heroes vs. Villains $29.99 94 39% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Pawn Planet $9.99 280 71% 8.4k $84k (exactly $83,916) Gambol Games
Stellar Wanderer DX $19.99 60 71% 1.8k $36k (exactly $35,982) Dream Builder Studios
Colony 37 · EA $2.99 224 95% 6.7k $20k (exactly $20,093) Valen
Warp to Sector One · EA $11.99 41 92% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) hextor.Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.