Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Trading game?

Trading + Modern

Of 32 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×23 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.8M, ×12412 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 51 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 51 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $29k → $16k → $1.3k (still earning) → $809 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $11k (exactly $10,795)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,052)
Top 5% $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 57
Announced 51
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Life Sim, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 31,835 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
SuperPower 3 older $29.99 982 10% 29k $884k (exactly $883,505) GolemLabs
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo
GOAL! The Club Manager · EA older $29.99 364 33% 11k $327k (exactly $327,491) 2tainment
Mad Smartphone Tycoon older $11.99 577 71% 17k $208k (exactly $207,547) Miradil
Entertainment Simulator $18.99 181 73% 5.4k $103k (exactly $103,116) Grizzbera Studio
中年失业模拟器When a man lose his job older $7.99 344 77% 10k $82k (exactly $82,457) Kwing works
Rent A Car Simulator 24 $12.99 154 53% 4.6k $60k (exactly $60,014) 2MEDYA
Device Doctor Simulator 2024 $9.99 186 62% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) Tenacity Games
Vending Machine Business Simulator $8.99 193 74% 5.8k $52k (exactly $52,052) Crow Interactive
Global Magnates: Shipping Tycoon $12.99 116 64% 3.5k $45k (exactly $45,205) Aquila Chengdu
回到2001买房子 $19.99 48 72% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) 新起点制作组

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.