Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Trading game?

Trading + Post-apocalyptic

Only 16 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Trading game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dustland Delivery, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×7.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×482 the market median. Revenue is up 2540% on the market; 50 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 2540% on the market, 50 announced, ×7.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $299 → $10k → $80k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $10k (exactly $10,294)
Top 25% $77k (exactly $76,752)
Top 5% $303k (exactly $302,981)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 44
Announced 50
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2540% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Trading; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Strategy, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2.5D, 2D, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,618 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $76k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
Vagrus - The Riven Realms older $29.99 1,746 84% 52k $1.6M (exactly $1,570,876) Lost Pilgrims Studio
Hard Truck Apocalypse / Ex Machina older $7.99 2,426 83% 73k $582k (exactly $581,512) Targem Games
Dust to the End older $11.99 1,076 78% 32k $387k (exactly $387,037) Haojoy Game, Zjoy Game
Dustland Delivery $7.99 1,264 88% 38k $303k (exactly $302,981) Neutron Star Studio
Taora : Survival · EA older $13.99 353 55% 11k $148k (exactly $148,154) Tulpar Games
Merchants of Kaidan older $14.99 230 60% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) Forever Entertainment S. A.
Project Rebearth $17.99 184 70% 5.5k $99k (exactly $99,305) Program Sam
Caravaneer 2 older $5.99 535 94% 16k $96k (exactly $96,140) Dmitry Zheltobriukhov
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Dust Raiders $15.99 160 64% 4.8k $77k (exactly $76,752) Vixa Games
IDLE_DIRECTIVE $4.99 505 86% 15k $76k (exactly $75,598) Kevinfu510
Apocalypse: The Last RV · EA $4.99 159 68% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) 光年切片工作室
Zombie Chef $9.99 40 50% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) Voidy
尸来运转-Lucky Zombie Survival $3.99 86 86% 2.6k $10k (exactly $10,294) Kwing works
T.D.Z. 4 Chapter 1 - Arrival $5.99 38 92% 1.1k $6.8k (exactly $6,829) Team GZ, VADIM CHURILOV
Dao's Cover · EA $17.99 3 66% 90 $1.6k (exactly $1,619) Beijing Baidong Technology

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.