Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Trading game?

Trading + Military

Only 15 developers shipped a Military Trading game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BidKing, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×3176 the market median. Revenue is up 1025% on the market; 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1025% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $38k → $538 → $36k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 25% $108k (exactly $107,946)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 36
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1025% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 35% positive over 23,618 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghosts of Tabor · EA older $24.99 9,140 70% 274k $6.9M (exactly $6,852,258) Combat Waffle Studios
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Power & Revolution 2022 Edition older $49.99 815 60% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) Eversim
Power & Revolution 2021 Edition older $49.99 629 56% 19k $943k (exactly $943,311) Eversim
SuperPower 3 older $29.99 982 10% 29k $884k (exactly $883,505) GolemLabs
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Imperiums: Greek Wars older $29.99 453 83% 14k $408k (exactly $407,564) Kube Games
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Tlatoani: Aztec Cities $19.99 180 83% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios
Ironsmith Medieval Simulator older $9.99 214 26% 6.4k $64k (exactly $64,136) The EpicLore
Stellar Wanderer DX $19.99 60 71% 1.8k $36k (exactly $35,982) Dream Builder Studios
Globalism · EA $29.99 17 52% 510 $15k (exactly $15,295) igelanium games
Gun Shop Manager · EA $12.99 13 38% 390 $5.1k (exactly $5,066) Aiolos Studios, Welter Games
New Stars $19.99 5 60% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) adamjr
MA 2 – President Simulator $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Oxiwyle Inc.
Arms Dealer $5.99 9 100% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Koro Pixel Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.