Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Spectacle fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter

Of 299 developers who shipped a Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 543 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×1018 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 543 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 543 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 299
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $2.7k → $1.2k → $2.2k → $1.5k → $2.1k → $1.8k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 299
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,679)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,941)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437)
Developers, 2 yr 299
Released games 997
Announced 543
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 162,595 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 191 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 543 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Spectacle fighter

73 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. RTS + Spectacle fighter Dead $6.2k 8 devs
  2. Spectacle fighter + Local Co-Op Dead $4.0k 5 devs
  3. Spectacle fighter + Top-Down Shooter Dead $3.7k 6 devs
  4. Spectacle fighter + Bullet Time Dead $3.6k 11 devs
  5. Spectacle fighter + Destruction Dead $2.7k 8 devs
  6. Spectacle fighter + Precision Platformer Dead $2.3k 7 devs
  7. Spectacle fighter + Real Time Tactics Dead $2.2k 16 devs
  8. Spectacle fighter + Procedural Generation Dead $1.8k 8 devs
  9. Spectacle fighter + Mystery Dungeon Dead $1.6k 8 devs
  10. Spectacle fighter + Hidden Object Dead $1.6k 4 devs
  11. Spectacle fighter + Tactical RPG Dead $1.5k 6 devs
  12. Spectacle fighter + Wargame Dead $1.2k 18 devs
  13. Battle Royale + Spectacle fighter Dead $1.2k 5 devs
  14. Spectacle fighter + Runner Dead $1.1k 12 devs
  15. Spectacle fighter + Tower Defense Dead $718 13 devs
  16. Spectacle fighter + Flight Dead $629 3 devs
  17. Spectacle fighter + 4 Player Local Dead $599 11 devs
  18. Spectacle fighter + Combat Racing Dead $419 11 devs
  19. Spectacle fighter + Racing Dead $359 10 devs
  20. Spectacle fighter + Puzzle Dead $270 14 devs
  21. Spectacle fighter + Shoot 'Em Up Dead $269 10 devs
  22. Spectacle fighter + Boxing Dead $148 14 devs
  23. Hero Shooter + Spectacle fighter Dead $0 4 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M NieR:Automata™ 2017 · $138M Devil May Cry 5 2019 · $107M DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024 · $76M METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE 2014 · $62M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ULTRAKILL · EA older $29.99 213,450 97% 6.4M $192M (exactly $192,040,965) Arsi "Hakita" Patala
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
Devil May Cry 5 older $29.99 119,108 96% 3.6M $107M (exactly $107,161,468) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE older $29.99 69,104 96% 2.1M $62M (exactly $62,172,869) PlatinumGames
FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE older $39.99 43,473 87% 1.3M $52M (exactly $52,154,558) Square Enix
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH $49.99 25,363 75% 761k $38M (exactly $38,036,891) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
MARVEL Tōkon: Fighting Souls $59.99 4,934 48% 148k $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720) ARC SYSTEM WORKS CO., LTD
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 $59.99 2,879 83% 86k $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) CyberConnect2
NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black $49.99 3,289 78% 99k $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.