Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Mystery Dungeon

Only 8 developers shipped a Mystery Dungeon Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Stonemachia, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.6k against a market of $1.5k. 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 462420% on the market, 14 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 25% $541k (exactly $541,215)
Top 5% $746k (exactly $746,027)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 30
Announced 14
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 462425% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Mystery Dungeon
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,081 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $540k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 14 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stonemachia $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Crossfall Games
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
Firelight Fantasy: Phoenix Crew older $13.99 173 78% 5.2k $73k (exactly $72,608) Quacky Games
Firelight Fantasy: Vengeance older $13.99 142 79% 4.3k $60k (exactly $59,597) Quacky Games
Santhai older $12.99 137 89% 4.1k $53k (exactly $53,389) Hardworker Studio, Rachan Neamprasert
Happy Souls older $39.99 37 75% 1.1k $44k (exactly $44,389) Galactic Geckon
Rescue Operation older $3.99 253 87% 7.6k $30k (exactly $30,284) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Death Below older $9.99 63 58% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,881) Soft
Jacob The Farmer older $4.99 50 74% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Quarlellle
Cemetery Warrior V older $3.99 32 71% 960 $3.8k (exactly $3,830) Falco Software
Duil $11.99 5 80% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) JL studio
Valenium $10.99 5 20% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) Need3RD
Run Eternal Depths $0.99 9 88% 270 $267 (exactly $267) Artyom Gudkov
Apocalypse of the Universe $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) v.a.c.u.u.m.
Forgotten spirit $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) BurningGRP
Dungeon Hero $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Taranau Aliaksei

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.