Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Top-Down Shooter

Only 6 developers shipped a Top-Down Shooter Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Silly Polly Beast, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×6.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.7k against a market of $1.5k. 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 2000% on the market, 20 announced, ×6.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,028)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,366,117)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 36
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2000% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Top-Down Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 3,087 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $3.7k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 20 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Silly Polly Beast $19.99 2,278 90% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,366,117) Anji
LEVEL UP 80 older $39.99 99 79% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Galactic Geckon
NIDUS older $8.99 223 93% 6.7k $60k (exactly $60,143) Caleb Wood
Nelo · EA older $4.99 139 69% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,808) Magic and Mirrors
Fishermurs older $4.99 127 67% 3.8k $19k (exactly $19,012) Reward Hunters
WarForwards older $9.99 47 78% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Roman Pak
Touhou Brawl $11.99 39 51% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) FIVE DUCK GAMES
Deadfall older $9.99 29 93% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) BekkerDev Studio
TechBeat Heart older $1.99 78 92% 2.3k $4.7k (exactly $4,657) Lost Machine Games
HUNTERS FOR YOUR BRAIN older $4.99 28 71% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) REANIMATO.RUS
NUMANUIN $4.99 25 92% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Siberian Mouse
Liberator TD $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Okay Studios
Devastablance. Mountain Brotherhood $3.00 3 100% 90 $270 (exactly $270) Shvap Games Studio
Outlanders: Hunt and Survive $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) DIG Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.