Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Runner

Only 12 developers shipped a Runner Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, CONERU -DIMENSION GIRL-, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.1k against a market of $1.5k. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 13 announced, ×6.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $157,721)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 32
Announced 13
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 80% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Runner
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 364 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mighty Goose older $19.99 943 86% 28k $566k (exactly $565,517) Blastmode, MP2 Games
Furry Killer older $29.99 241 78% 7.2k $217k (exactly $216,828) Sujikon
Music Racer older $1.99 3,332 87% 100k $199k (exactly $198,920) AbstractArt
CONERU -DIMENSION GIRL- $19.99 263 96% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) HIKE Inc., Eallin Japan Co.Ltd.
Witch Epoch older $24.99 12 91% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Agent Murphy older $4.99 47 72% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) xproject
EvoWars: New Era $8.99 25 72% 750 $6.7k (exactly $6,742) Night Steed Games
Carlos the Taco older $2.99 47 93% 1.4k $4.2k (exactly $4,216) VICTORIA Games
NINJA KAMUI: SHINOBI ORIGINS $19.99 6 100% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) G.rev Ltd.
the Shadow of Swallow $3.99 30 76% 900 $3.6k (exactly $3,591) Raine Studio
V.R.G. $3.50 15 93% 450 $1.6k (exactly $1,575) latel88
Little Fighters on Stream $3.99 9 88% 270 $1.1k (exactly $1,077) TEAM Black Hat Robot
GHOST OF THE DICED STEAK $2.99 10 80% 300 $897 (exactly $897) rW Games
Hot Pig Jump! $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) DekkaRuby Games
Damn Zombies $6.00 1 0% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Liubezhanin Productions
Forgotten spirit $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) BurningGRP

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.